On 15 May the head of the Public Opinion Foundation (POF), Alexander Oslon, at an RIA "News” press conference published the the data from an April poll of Muscovites.
The large-scale (3600 respondents) study focused primarily on the situation in the city itself, but the chief sensation revealed by sociologists was directly related to the federal political agenda. According to data published by POF, when asked who they would vote for if presidential elections were held the following week, 62% of Muscovites who had been undecided named Vladimir Putin.
Thus, the FOM survey confirmed what we and representatives of other polling agencies have already said: the representatives of the non-systemic opposition, despite their noisy protest campaign, are still unable to boast the support of voters. And Muscovites confidence in Vladimir Putin has recently been significantly increasing.
Muscovites consider the situation in the city as being not so bad. A significant fact is that 79% of respondents say that they live in a good neighbourhood; almost as many – 82% -say they do not want to change where they live.
Not surprisingly, against this background the Moscow city government received a positive assessment. A direct question about who citizens would vote for in the election of governor, 61% who had not yet decided named acting mayor Sergei Sobyanin. In comparison with this result: Mikhail Prokhorov ("Civic Platform”) would now score only 12% (and his rating in the last few months has suddenly fallen by 5 percentage points); Galina Khovanskaya ("Fair Russia”) – 8%; Ivan Melnikov (CPRF) – 4%; Igor Lebedev (LDPR) – 3%. And on a short list consisting of Alexei Navalny and Sergei Mitrokhin ("Apple”), their rating (2 – 3%) would actually be indistinguishable from the statistical error of the study. It seems that despite their ambitions, these politicians will soon have to compete for first position in the leadership amongst themselves.
Finally, "United Russia” maintains a fairly high rating. 46% of the voters make up the so far undecided that would tend to vote for this party in the Moscow City Duma elections. This figure is comparable with the party results received in the capital during the Duma elections of 2011.
All in all, probably only six political parties will be able to overcome the 5% bar to parliamentary elections in the capital. In second place after "United Russia”, despite predictions about the success of the "liberals”, is the Communist Party. 14% of Muscovites are ready to support the Communists. The Liberal Democratic Party could gain 11%; Mikhail Prokhorov’s «Civic Platform” – 8%; "Fair Russia” and "Apple” might get 5% of the votes. The other parties will only be able to garner considerably fewer votes.
Given that Muscovites are traditionally characterized by their rational attitude towards the government, such survey results are only indicative of a minimum. Nearly two-thirds of the capital’s residents show preferences towards supporting Vladimir Putin in an election. In the remaining regions, the president’s electoral rating is just as high.