The future of Russia-US anti-terrorism cooperation

Finally, the Greater Middle East is in for a long-term period of instability. It has been going through one of the biggest transformations in the past few decades. Not just political stability, but even the very statehood of some countries has come under threat. This applies to Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya. Their preservation as whole political entities within the current borders is a major question. It is difficult to predict what regimes will replace their current rulers. In any event, regional instability and the terrorist threat in these countries will increase compared to what they had under relatively authoritarian regimes, a la Mubarak or Assad.

The future of the region’s political regimes is also unclear. It is easier to say what they will not be. They will not be European-style liberal democracies or clerical orthodoxies like Iran. Most probably, they will fluctuate between moderate and radical Islamism. The struggle for power is likely to be won by radical Salafis and will be accompanied by new cycles of civil wars and violence. The region is likely to be swept by terrorism for a long time. Destabilization will not be alleviated by long-term occupation of Muslim states by Western coalitions, and for this reason terrorist activities will not only concentrate within these countries, but will spill over to the outside world, including Russia and the United States.

There is an objective need for a new start of close and large-scale cooperation between Russia and the United States. It is necessary to upgrade this cooperation to a level that corresponds to the scale of threat. How can this be achieved, considering the aforementioned difficulties? Some of them are exerting a dual influence on this sphere of Russian-US cooperation. Thus, the emasculation of the positive agenda of bilateral relations and the growth of contradictions are simultaneously obstructing counterterrorist cooperation and increasing its importance as a common goal.

Past experience makes it clear that it is inappropriate to view counterterrorist activities as a separate area of bilateral cooperation. First, the consistency and effectiveness of cooperation between security services directly depend on the general condition of relations, the level of trust and political will. Secondly, an anti-terrorist struggle may produce results only if it is aimed at destroying members of terrorist groups, their sponsors and supporters, and at eradicating or weakening the fundamental reasons prompting part of the population to resort to terrorism as an instrument of political struggle. To achieve the latter goal Russia and the United States should at least pursue coordinated and complementary comprehensive strategies as regards the regions that are the main sources of the terrorist threat.

Obviously, Russian-US anti-terrorist cooperation will be successful and consistent only if they substantially change their approaches to Afghanistan (especially after 2014), Central Asia and the Greater Middle East, or at least make them more or less compatible. It would be useful to launch bilateral strategic dialogues on these regions to discuss scenarios of their development and terrorist and other threats, along with risks involved in them. During such discussions it will be possible to assess jointly the terrorist threats emanating from these regions, like Russia and the United States, Russia and NATO made joint assessments of the threats of proliferation of nuclear weapons, missiles and missile technology a few years ago.

Elaboration of the joint assessment of terrorist threats by Russia and the United States would create a solid foundation for anti-terrorist cooperation (such as exchange of information and conduct of joint operations). It would also help the two countries to bring their political approaches to the said regions closer together. If such an assessment is made, it would be possible to upgrade bilateral counterterrorist cooperation and establish a Russian-American anti-terrorist center. This center would conduct online assessment of terrorist-related information from Russian and US security services, as well as plan and coordinate joint operations. The continuous operation of such a center would largely promote trust between the security services and bureaucracies of the two countries.

Moreover, the cross-border and even global nature of the threat of international terrorism could prompt Russia and the United States to go beyond bilateral cooperation in this sphere and create a flexible multilateral network around this center that would involve other countries in joint work, depending on the specific circumstances. Thus, it is necessary to involve China in the efforts to remove the threat of Afghan terrorism. China is no less interested than other countries in Afghanistan’s stable development. It is also concerned that Islamic radicalism and terrorism may be exported to its Muslim provinces from that country. China could be involved in anti-terrorist efforts in a trilateral format – with Russia and the United States, or even better in the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The issue of terrorism in the Arab world should be discussed with European countries and Turkey, which are subjected to its threat no less than Russia and more so the United States.