Dmitriy Trenin
Dmitriy Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, has been with the center since its inception. He also chairs the research council and the Foreign and Security Policy Program.
Barack Obama’s red
line onSyriahas failed to act as a
deterrent. Cynics would argue that it was a condition to be fulfilled for the
United States to become militarily involved in the Syrian conflict.John Kerry’s very forceful statement on Syria on Mondayleaves little doubt that a U.S. military strike against Bashar
al-Assad’s forces will now come soon. The Pentagon is taking over from State as
the chief U.S. government agency on Syria.
Most analysts at this point expect cruise missile attacks which would be launched at the Syrian government’s command and control centers, communications, and critical infrastructure targets. Some, however, expect the strikes to be limited, avoiding deeper U.S. involvement and heavier financial burden. There is certain logic behind these expectations, yet it is unlikely that Washington will be so restrained.
President Obama has been criticized far too long within the country for waffling and waning on Syria. Even though most people do not want U.S. boots on the ground, Obama’s presumed passivity and lack of strategy have turned into a political liability for the administration. The U.S. president is a reluctant warrior, but he can be convinced of the need to use force, as in Libya or during the surge in Afghanistan. Obama will try hard to avoid being dragged into another ground war in the Middle East, but he will fire more than a warning shot. The United States is about to start a campaign which will aim at eventually toppling the Assad regime. Washington will lead a coalition of Syrian rebels, Middle Eastern and European countries which will seek to unseat Assad and rob Iran of its one major ally.
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