Obama’s Russia fiasco

The Cold-War style propaganda against Russian President Vladimir Putin in the western media may have peaked. So much garbage has been thrown at the Russian leader that the inventory must be getting depleted. But amidst all the mudslinging, Putin himself remains nonchalant, again belying the western character sketches of him that he can’t take criticism. Apparently he can.

Besides, Putin’s popularity within Russia itself is soaring above 80 percent currently. It is doubtful if any world leader can match Putin’s popularity today. And that also probably explains Putin’s indifference to the western media attacks on him. As he told an interviewer once, he was elected, after all, to serve his country and not for being ‘nice’ to Barack Obama.

An American poll conducted by the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research at the University of Chicago has come up with some stunning results:

• Putin is extremely popular among the Russian people, enjoying an approval rating of 81 percent;
• Economic woes are top of mind among the Russian people and they agree western sanctions are hurting the economy, but they do not yet feel a negative impact on their pocketbooks;
• Most Russians feel their country is headed in the right direction and are optimistic about their own personal fiancés in the coming years;
• Two thirds of Russians favor supporting the separatist movement in Ukraine.

The poll is particularly interesting because NORC in the University of Chicago (where Obama taught for 12 years ending as a professor) also works for the "government agencies” to provide data and analysis that "support informed decision making in key areas.” Suffice it to say, the AP-NORC poll would have come to the attention of the White House and possibly, Obama’s aides might even have drawn his attention to it.

How should Obama view the startling results of the AP-NORC poll? Evidently, the poll shows that his Russia policy is in a shambles. If the hope was that under the weight of sanctions, Russian economy will pack up and popular disaffection with Putin will cascade and that in turn will be the end of the Russian leader’s political life, well, things are going haywire.

Objectively speaking, the Russian people are pretty much pleased with Putin’s policies. And Obama’s calculation that he is cleverly separating the Russian leader from his people has gone horribly wrong. Putin is actually enjoying a popularity, which is more than double that of Obama’s. Self-styled Russian hands in the US were forecasting cracks in the Russian system. But nothing of the sort happened.

What Obama overlooks is that the Russian people are very different from the average American who is gullible about what goes on in the world outside. The Russian people are literate and politically conscious – thanks to the Soviet legacy – and they do understand what the US’ ‘containment strategy’ toward Russia or NATO’s expansion is all about. They understand that Ukraine crisis is an existential struggle for strategic balance with America. So, they want Putin to stay on course.

Putin intends to exploit his popularity to implement something that seems close to his heart, namely, a restructuring of the Russian economy and cutting down its heavy dependence on oil income. It’s a long haul, but reform is in the air. Putin’s address to the council of ministers in the Kremlin on Thursday leaves one in no doubt that Russia is digging in. True, Russian economy is in difficulty, but aside the propagandists in the West presenting apocalyptic visions, no one seriously expects the Russian economy to come down on its knees.

All in all, Obama faces a formidable intellectual challenge here. Does he press ahead with more of the same mindless bluster passing off as Russia policy in the next year too? If that is the case, what is it that he hopes to achieve? By now it is widely accepted by American pundits that Putin doesn’t blink. What does that belated realization mean?

It can only mean that this confrontation, unless ended now, could be about to enter a dangerous escalatory spiral. The dynamic at play is unmistakable. And yet, Obama just signed the bill empowering him to impose further sanctions on Russia and, worse still, to give Ukraine $350 million worth of arms. Putin – and the Russian people – only feel convinced more than ever before that what Obama aims at is a regime change in Russia.

But regime change is, clearly, not something the Russian people want – according to the AP-NORC poll. Where does that leave Obama? Without doubt, Russia has become a major foreign-policy challenge for Obama and it is inconceivable that a cerebral man like him would want to be known in history for the dubious twin reputation of being the US president and a Nobel Laureate who rekindled the flames of the Cold War.

blogs.rediff.com