NATO`s missile defence system for Europe has stumbled over Poland

Contingencies are a rare occurrence in politics. It so happened that in the midst of the presidential election campaign in the United States, there appears a report by the National Research Council (NRG) containing sensational conclusions about the necessity of changing the whole concept of the NATO missile defence system for Europe and moving part of the missile shield, from Poland, over the ocean. Is this mere coincidence?

Let's remember: the NATO missile defence system intended for Europe implying the deployment of missiles in close proximity to our borders is a stumbling block in Russian-American negotiations. So the resolution of the Expert Council could in fact give second wind to the "reset" and... Gain votes for Barack Obama's presidential campaign. However, Russian observers express different opinions on the issue. Leading expert on security at the Russian Center of Political Studies, Lieutenant-General E. Buzhinsky says:

"It is difficult to judge the motives that prompted the authors to publish the report at this very moment. Obama has firmly stated that there would be no changes before the elections. Apparently, the experts have just finished their work and released the report. No conspiracy at all! The more so that the Pentagon has reacted to the report with restraint, like "we will study it." And there is much to study. Sensible ideas are offered that have long been discussed in Russia. The main idea is that, from a military-technical point of view, it is senseless to deploy interceptor missiles in Poland and in the Baltic Sea area, of course, if it really is tied to a potential threat from Iran, as stated by the Americans. And such a missile should be shot down not at the start, as proposed by the Pentagon, but later, during its flight. Does a possible «resettlement» of the system’s key element to the US relieve all Russian concerns about the problem of the NATO missile defence system for Europe? To a large extent, it does. But, I repeat, if the Americans, in accordance with the scientists’ proposals, deploy the ABM defence system on their East Coast, and at the same time refrain from locating their SM-3 Block 2B interceptors in Poland. In this case, I do not see any threat to our deterrent forces. Of course, I proceed from the improbability of exchanging blows between Russia and the United States.

Well, and what about Poland? Wouldn’t its own security suffer from the lack of American strategic missiles?

"I have always been astonished at our Polish friends and partners’ urgent need to have at least one American military facility on their territory. Probably, they consider it a guarantee of their security. But why does it necessarily have to be weapons that violate the strategic balance between Russia and the US in Europe? It could easily be other facilities. We did not particularly object to the deployment of a division of Patriots here, i.e. a means of air defence. In October-November, the first contingent of "manpower" from the United States could arrive in Poland; 10-20 soldiers will be stationed there on a permanent basis. The country regards it as an important political step, the General notes.

After having agreed to deploy interceptor missiles, the Polish leadership is not relieved of doubt, and it is publicly expressed at different levels. President Komorowski has even called this decision "a mistake." Why? After all, Iran is far away, and Poland does not want to see Russian Iskanders in the Kaliningrad region, close to its border, in response. So, what will the outcome of the situation be like? Will the United States step back from their Polish venture or not? General Director of the Political Conjuncture Center, Sergey Mikheev is pessimistic:

"Let's be honest, the report by a non-governmental organization is nothing more than an insignificant piece of paper. It is not worth discussing. The more so that some of the ABM defense elements are already physically located in Poland and in other Eastern European countries; I'm talking about radar. And specialists are already arriving there, and the works are well under way. Why was this report released now? Perhaps, for the sake of political bargaining. Americans often do that. Firstly, they create tensions, and then suggest that they should retreat in exchange for reciprocal steps on our part. They sort of hint: we might not deploy missiles in Poland, and in exchange you would pay no attention to the situation in Syria and abstain from voting..."

Russian analysts are sure that in any case the decision on the NATO missile defence system for Europe will be a political one, despite all the arguments of military experts advising the White House. And if a new boss (Mitt Romney) moves in, the "reset" is condemned to stalling.