RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 11 NOVEMBER 2021

REMEMBRANCE DAY. I remind Russians that, while D-Day was not the decisive battle of the war, it was not hastily thrown together when it was clear that Germany was defeated either.

STEELE DOSSIER. It’s good to be able to tell your MSM-duped neighbours that you were right and their "trusted sources” were lying but so what? Five years too late and still more to go before the principals are on the dock. So what difference does revealing it now make? The coup succeeded: whatever Trump might have done was stymied and Putin was established as The Enemy.

NO KIDDING. "The allegations cast new uncertainty on some past reporting on the dossier by news organizations, including The Washington Post;” Meanwhile they pump out new lies, eliding their responsibility for the last ones: "uncertainties”, "some past reporting”. That’s all we can expect.

QUOTE OF THE YEAR. "The vast majority of disinformation, propaganda and lies that flooded the country over the last 5 years did not come from MAGA boomers on Facebook or 4Chan teenagers but the largest and most influential liberal corporate media outlets.” Reading over what I wrote at the time (for example four years ago), I see that I always underestimated the power that the media/security merger could mobilise to keep the lie going: I kept thinking that some revelation would finally blow it up, but on and on it went. And some are so deep in the delusion that they still spin it away.

CORRUPTION. Criminal cases, firings, disciplinary actions on prison torture scandal.

RUSSIA-BELARUS. More agreements worked out in a meeting; the two grow closer. Especially on defence cooperation which Lukashenka made a point of praising. And that is "a response to the policy of pressure from the West". Joint air patrol today. I continue to expect an end state with Lukashenka retired and the two countries, while formally separate, very closely tied together on security and economies.

REFUGEE WARS. Colour revolution attempt to overthrow Lukashenka fails; fake bomb threat lands plane, activist discovered, arrested, sings. The West accuses Minsk of this and that; sanctions. Lukashenka imports refugees who congregate at EU borders. That’s b’s take and it sounds reasonable to me. Brussels simulates more outrage. But consider the background: Washington’s "war on terror” has displaced 37 million people and Merkel invited them in. Zakharova suggests Poland, given its participation in the Iraq invasion, should take a few "grateful Iraqis” and Lavrov helpfully suggests Brussels bribe Minsk (I note that Russians permit themselves to be snarkier). Oh, BTW, shouldn’t the EU be addressing its demands to Tsikhanouskaya?

UKRAINE. 1 Nov: Russian buildup on Ukraine border shrieks controlled US media. 2 Nov: CIA Director Burns goes to Moscow; said to warn Moscow against military operations. 3 Nov: Dmytro Yarosh appointed adviser to the commander-in-chief of the Ukraine armed forces, Defence Minister resigns. 4 Nov: US official visits Kiev. 7 Nov: Kiev says no indication of Russian buildup on border. What just happened? Moscow got its message across and Washington turned its puppet off? (If so, nobody told Blinken.) Hard to imagine anyone in Kiev thinks "a good little war” would improve the wretched situation. But Yarosh might. This time I think Moscow will use force – if they didn’t get the hint in the spring, there’s no point in more hints: time for facts. (Ossetia 2008; but faster.)

GUNS. Putin met with the military bosses (Day 1) (Day 2) (Day 3) and praised the new high-tech weapons for "ensuring a high level of Russian military security for many years”. The fearsome "terminator” is about to go into service; as is the S-500 and they’re working on an S-550, 2000 RPVs. Meanwhile, the US military’s most powerful and competent component confronts 30 years of faking.

YUKOS. The Netherlands Supreme Court has overruled a lower court’s judgement on Yukos: nice to see there’s at least one court there that doesn’t write its verdict at the beginning of the trial.

STASIS. 71% think the US is on wrong track. 30% think the election was stolen. Few in the world think US democracy a good model. Second-greatest life expectancy drop among "wealthy countries”. Graham Allison says the era of US military primacy is over.

NEW NWO. Milley says there are three great powers. Does this mean anything? Who’s in charge in Washington anyway?

COVID. "With” or "From”? Good question – Italian, Googlish.

WESTERN VALUES™. Putin and Xi are wrong for not bringing their planes and motorcades.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

patrickarmstrong.ca