RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 25 NOVEMBER 2021

UKRAINE. Lots of bogus hysteria about how Russia is about to invade Ukraine – for example. Here’s my view – Russia Inc has no desire to pay for "Country 404” – the US/EU/NATO broke it, they own it. But, eventually, the provocations will get to be too much – it’s a cost-benefit analysis and I’m not privy to the data – then Russia will liberate those parts of Ukraine where Russians will be welcomed as liberators and leave the rest to its fate. When/if it happens, it will be fast, decisive and surprise everybody (like every Russian military operation since 2000). There is nothing the West can do (sanctions escalation – that’s a spavined horse) unless it wants to go nuclear in which case the USA will certainly be obliterated. Orlov and Saker. From the West, nonsense and more nonsense (complete with The Misquotation). How about this from the country with one fully-staffed infantry battalion? The safety of the world hangs on the patience of Putin and Xi and the hope that not all Western generals are future VP Sales of MIC rackets.

RUSSIA/CHINA. The two Defence Ministers have agreed to still closer ties. This relationship is much broader and deeper than a mere "alliance”: it’s Mackinder’s Heartland plus population plus production plus sea power. The end of the "Columbian Age”. Moscow and Beijing, learning from the failures of the USSR and the Imperium Americanum, won’t try and run the world: they know it can’t be done.

OPINION WORTH LISTENING TO. This guy is connected: NATO’s mistake is that it still thinks it’s dealing with the weakened Russia of the 1990s. Another mistake, I would add, is that NATO thinks it’s the (imagined) NATO of the 1990s; it isn’t: only a paper tiger then, it’s become a paper pussycat.

RIGHTS AND FREEDOMS. Levada poll (Googlish) shows Russians highly value social rights. Situation seems OK but read Levinson’s notes: he detects differences in the young. But another poll suggests that the young aren’t all that much different (despite, IMO, a heavy effort by the interviewers to elicit opposition sympathies).

KURSK. The former Northern Fleet commander says the Kursk was sunk after a collision with a NATO submarine. "No comment” says Peskov.

PLEISTOCENE PARK. "This complex will be a basis to implement one of the super tasks the World Mammoth Center is facing – the ambitious idea to revive mammoths by using biotechnologies".

GAS TRANSIT. Spreading invasion rumours, Kiev wants another gas transit agreement with Russia.

NORD STREAM 2. More US sanctions and delays by Germany. OK, Russia loses some money but Europe will lose more (even the Greens have figured that out). "This is a game where Germany does not hold a winning hand". As to money, Russia’s FOREX kitty is now USD620 billion and growing and China will buy anything Russia has.

THOSE PESKY RUSSIANS. They want to spread chaos in the USA and there’s a diesel shortage exacerbating the supply chain problem. So naturally Moscow would like to make this worse – or so we’ve been told over and over. So why is it selling the USA two million barrels of diesel? Another question your MSM outlets will neither ask nor answer.

WESTERN VALUES™. Natylie Baldwin explains why Russians are no longer interested in the West’s "values”. I wrote something similar. Apart from other reasons, they’re not impressed by the gap between promise and performance. Another possibility destroyed by arrogance and ignorance. See below.

WE MAKE THE RULES. "NATO reiterate that they have no intention, no plan and no reason to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of new members". Yeah but the famous Rules-Based International Order doesn’t mean we have to stick to the rules.

REFUGEE WARS. Lukashenka spoke to Merkel (I guess there’s no more pretending that she’s in charge). Coincidentally, as it were, Belavia cancelled migrant flights from UAE. The one time I was in the same room as Lukashenka, I didn’t think he was very smart. I was wrong: watch this interview with a "journalist” who thinks he’s a barrister. PS I think Lukashenka has had enough of smug Westerners.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. Five corrections we won’t see from the MSM, instead Applebaum hits it out of the park – even when it’s false, it’s true.

MY WEIRDOMETER IS BROKEN. Not even in the USSR was there Ilyich and Koba; Boy Detectives.

ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN. More fighting. It’s reported that Putin will meet the two presidents on Friday. Russia has a mutual defence treaty with Armenia (which does not cover Karabakh).

GUNS. A US general says American hypersonic capabilities are "not as advanced” as China’s or Russia’s.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

patrickarmstrong.ca