Published 3-03-2013, 15:20
Edward Lozansky
President of the American University in Moscow, Professor of World Politics at Moscow State University
Washington –
Probably to make sure that nobody has any doubts that America is indeed behind
many opposition protests their leaders are landing in Washington to present a
totally predictable agenda: Obama should sharply toughen up his attitude toward
the Putin regime as the reset has failed and fresh ideas are needed.
This is exactly what Obama needs right now. At a
time when he and his administration are desperately searching for the new ideas
to solve the numerous domestic and external problems, the Russian opposition
and their American friends are doing everything possible to significantly
expand the list of such problems. The gathering began on at the Heritage
Foundation, where opposition activist and journalist Vladimir Kara-Murza who is
now also a fellow of the Institute of Contemporary Russia (president Mikhail
Khodorkovskiy's son Pavel), made his modest contribution to the discussion of recommendations
for the US president. Among them the speediest deployment of missile
defense systems in Europe, no military budget cuts, and the achievement of the
total supremacy of all US space, ground, air, and naval forces in Europe and
Eurasia. Russia needs to be forced to buy American meat and America has to expand military
and economic cooperation with key Eurasian countries -- Ukraine, Azerbaijan,
Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan (Georgia appears to have been dumped). But the main
thing, of course, is support for the Russian opposition in the fight for
democracy and human rights.
Kara-Murza particularly disliked the fact that
"at a time when thousands of Muscovites had gathered in Pushkin Square to
voice their protest against the dishonest presidential elections, the US State
Department warmly congratulated Vladimir Putin on his victory." The main
event, however, is expected to take place on March 4 in the US Senate, where
the principal role will be played by Freedom House, since it is from there that
Putin will really get it in the neck. So far Lyudmila Alekseyeva, Mikhail
Kasyanov, Dmitriy Gudkov, and Liliya Shevtsova have been announced as speakers
but the appearance of other oppositionists is also a possibility. On the eve of
the gathering Freedom House and Liliya Shevtsova published their manifestos so
no special sensations are expected, but who knows?
Freedom House is pushing for a significant
increase in financial and moral support for the Russian opposition and also for
a quest for more "innovative ways to achieve the political liberalization
of Russia." As an innovative approach it states outright that it is
necessary to "issue a tough challenge not only to Russia but also to various
authoritarian organizations where it belongs including Eurasian Union, Collective Security Treaty Organization, Commopnealth
of Independent States, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization."
Those who follow the news from the United States
know that the main subject these days is the budget sequestration. However, in
Freedom House's opinion, social security, healthcare, education, and even
Pentagon are not as important as the support of Russian opposition, and so this
budget line should not shrink but grow. The pitiful $50 million allocated to
promote democracy in Russia is a drop in the ocean for such an ambitious
program. One gets a particular pleasure to hear the call to challenge Shanghai
Cooperation Organization, where one of the main players is China – our largest creditor to whom we owe almost $1.5 trillion. Now it looks like we
have to ask them for more to fund the activities against the creditors
themselves. It would be interesting to hear the Chinese comrades' response to
such a request!
The even more stunning proposals, however, are
emanating from the very heart of Moscow -- the offices of the Russian branch of
the Carnegie Foundation on Pushkin Square.
Liliya Shevtsova, a senior fellow with the foundation, proposes a much
more radical approach -- a return to the policy of containment of Putin's
Russia. This policy was first suggested by US diplomat George Kennan in his
famous cable from Moscow in 1946 to limit the global expansion of Soviet
communism. It was probably a good idea at the time but 50 years later it was
the same George Kennan who called the NATO expansion to the East to be a great
and tragic geopolitical mistake.
Nobody
disputes that Russian democratic institutions are still too weak and suffer
from many deficiencies that accompany the early stages of democracy development.
However, present day Russia is not attempting to spread its ideology or
threaten anyone's security as the USSR did.
Present-day Russia is primarily a regional power
with no particular global ambitions. It has, of course, its own interests,
which sometimes do not coincide with those of US but these interests do coincide
on the most important issues such as the fight against international terrorism,
drugs trafficking, nuclear nonproliferation, and others. So the calls to revive
the policy of Russia’s containment are not only inappropriate but also
dangerous since they turn Russia from, yes, not very reliable partner into an outright
enemy. I do not believe that America needs that but it is from here that Shevtsova
gets her salary.
The position of the Carnegie Foundation
leadership is also not totally clear. Jim Collins, former US ambassador to
Moscow and now director of the foundation's Russia programs; his deputy Matt
Rojansky; and also Dmitriy Trenin, director of this foundation's Moscow branch,
are known for their sober and pragmatic approach to American-Russian relations.
Both Moscow and Washington would be wise to listen to their opinions. It is
also clear that the foundation's staffers have total freedom of expression, but
can they contradict its strategic line at the same time? If this is not the
case, is it possible to suggest that the foundation's leaders regard a policy
of containing Russia as correct and are prepared to propose it to the White House?
As I see it, this upcoming "gathering" on Capitol Hill will not only fail to help the Russian opposition but will also significantly harm it since it will confirm the Kremlin’s accusations about "Washington’s hand" on its pulse. And there is unlikely to be more money for them; we have our own debt close to $17 trillion and therefore cannot keep borrowing from Communist China to promote democracy in Russia. Possibly the opposition should approach Beijing directly since China has the money and it is always better to deal without middlemen.