Ukrainian revolution: `It is vital the West works with Putin, not against him`

Ukraine can be put back on the road to a prosperous future but we will need to work with Russia to do it, writes Tony Brenton

For exponents of the "New Cold War" view of European politics, the Ukrainian crisis has been a godsend.

The country is split between a Russian-oriented eastern end and an EU-oriented western end. The past few months have seen a sharp competition for influence between the European Union, offering a "Partnership Agreement", and Russia, offering 9 billion pounds in hard cash. When Ukraine's president Viktor Yanukovych went for the cash (unsurprisingly in view of the country's parlous economic state) protests, largely driven from west Ukraine, erupted and have brought Mr Yanukovych down.

It is easy to see things going very badly from here. Mr Yanukovych was a rotten president - corrupt, brutal and incompetent - but he was regrettably representative of the Ukrainian political class. His most likely successor, Yulia Tymoshenko, newly released from political imprisonment, herself contributed to a period of bad and corrupt government which led up to Mr Yanukovych's election in 2010. Meanwhile, east-west tensions within the country have undoubtedly intensified.

Quasi-fascist gangs from the western region are pressing their own form of violent extremism. And talk has revived in the eastern region, notably the Crimea, of separation. From our Western perspective, the black hand of Russia has been seen behind a lot of this. If we are to help get Ukraine back on course it is important to put this in perspective.

Certainly, Russia has been determined to keep Ukraine out of the Western camp. Of all the ex-Soviet states Ukraine is the one closest to Russia, historically, culturally and economically. The relationship, with its intimacies and tensions, is not unlike that between England and Scotland. Hence the 9 billion. But that does not mean, as many commentators have suggested, that Vladimir Putin has been pushing Mr Yanukovych in the direction of brutal repression.

The last thing Mr Putin has wanted in the middle of the Sochi Olympics is a Ukrainian bloodbath with Russian fingerprints on it. Faced with demonstrations of his own two years ago, Mr Putin played a waiting game and eventually the protesters went away. Indeed, he must be experiencing a feeling of déjà vu. In Ukraine's 2004 "Orange Revolution", Mr Putin backed Mr Yanukovych, who fell (the man is a Jonah), but Russian interests and links with Ukraine still remained strong.

As Russia looks at Ukraine now, its principal concern is not the maintenance of Mr Yanukovych, but the avoidance of a slippage into chaos and civil war which would damagingly affect its trade with Ukraine and the huge number of Russian passport holders who live there.

It follows that we in the West should not be demonising the Russians, but trying to work with them. President Obama's hour-long "constructive" conversation with Mr Putin on Friday may well be a start. Both sides have real assets to contribute. Russia, apart from the money, still exercises huge social and political sway and probably has particular influence with the shadowy Ukrainian security organs whose acquiescence could well be key to a successful solution.

The West offers a model of clean, democratic, law-bound government which is, rightly, a beacon for a very large number of Ukrainians.

Ukraine is not doomed. It has a democratic, constitutional order that so far continues to function. It is well-educated and potentially wealthy. Up until the latest disturbances, even despite the appalling quality of its governance, it had a growing feeling of national unity and permanence.

There is every reason to feel Ukraine can be put back on the road to a prosperous future. But we will need to work with Russia to do it.

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