Published 1-10-2012, 07:54
Today’s Europe is suffering from an unprecedented financial and economic crisis that is threatening to place its unity in jeopardy. Greece is under technical default and the only solution for Athens is urgent financial assistance from the leading European Union powers. The situation in Spain and Italy is getting worse, and other EU members could easily find themselves following in Greece’s footsteps. Nevertheless, for some European politicians there is light at the end of the tunnel. Today experts and politicians in Europe are talking about the plan of political reform, which could make the EU a superpower and find a way out of crisis.
The proposals of the European confederation adherents are quite clear. According to the report published after the 11 EU ministers meeting in Warsaw, they seek to abandon the unanimity principle of decision making in foreign policy and security, establish a presidential post (the head of Europe will be chosen by direct voting), and create a European Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European army. So this plan seems to be very ambitious, but there is also a question how realistic it is?
According to information from media, the United Kingdom is strongly opposed it. For British political elite it is impossible, for instance, to replace its own independent foreign policy with a European one. The appearance of the European army will definitely raise questions about the neutral status of Finland and Sweden. Now it is clear that the main supporters of the European Union political reform are Germany and France, but it is evident that it will cost them a lot to overcome the resistance of some European countries.
Of course, crisis may help to do so. Germany is the main financial donor of the EU and it will definitely use this situation to convince other union members to follow the program of political reforms. Probably, a number of states will prefer to leave the European Union. Much will depend on the policy of EU leaders – whether they find an appropriate formula for the future or risk the project not materializing.
Russia is keeping its eyes peeled and is looking at the European political reform with a great feeling of ambiguity. Moscow has good relationships with many EU members – among them Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece and others. On the other hand there are still tensions in relations between Russia and such countries as Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Bulgaria, and Romania. It would be not an exaggeration to say that Europe also is divided about Russia and has problems with it in economic and political cooperation.
If the European Union becomes a confederative or federative state, for Russia it will mean a completely new international situation. It will find itself between two giants – EU and China, along with the third giant in Western hemisphere, the United States. All global politics will be dictated by this "Big Three” and Moscow will have to react to this new world somehow.
Nevertheless, it should be mentioned that Russia has a big geopolitical reserve to increase its influence. If the Eurasian integration process is successful, it will turn Russia and the former Soviet republics into the forth global center of power comparable with the EU, the USA and China. Of course, it is too early to make such far-reaching conclusions, but it seems that the acceleration of the Eurasian integration will be the most appropriate response to the creation of a European superpower.
Alexey Pilko
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