Turkey does not want to worsen its relations with Russia

Why do you think President Vladimir Putin has cancelled his visit to Turkey?

Officially, the visit was cancelled because of the president’s busy agenda. In principle, Putin is not obliged to explain his reasons for postponing the visit. 

But the real reason obviously has to do with the forced landing in Turkey of the plane flying from Russia to Syria. Although it is an unpleasant incident, the most insulting element is not the forced landing itself, but the Turkish authorities’ treatment of Russian nationals. Turkish special forces surrounded the plane, did not allow passengers to disembark and denied the Russian passengers the right to meet with Russian diplomats for eight hours. They should not have done this, whatever their suspicions about the cargo.

I recently returned from Turkey and can assure you that Ankara is not interested in intensifying tensions with Moscow. The Turkish authorities insist that Russia is a strategic partner and that they appreciate their relations with it. It is possible that Turkey was misled by information that the plane was allegedly carrying missiles, but at any rate, it has not found anything of the kind – only a small amount of technical equipment. And it will still need to prove that this equipment can be used for military purposes. Frankly speaking, the Turkish authorities have gotten themselves into a mess.

Any state visit usually has two goals. The first is a political goal and has to do with promoting bilateral relations in a number of spheres. Discussions of the situation in the region, primarily in Syria, were to be a component of the visit’s political dimension. 

The second goal is economic. It should be kept in mind that such high-level visits always have an economic aspect. Considering the scale of Turkish-Russian relations, the area for [economic] cooperation is truly vast. 

What is the probability of Turkey becoming directly involved in confrontation in Syria?

Turkey is almost openly supporting the armed opposition. Hence, the issue on the table is not open involvement, but two other issues. The first is the possibility of implementing the Turkish idea of a buffer zone in the Syrian regions bordering Turkey. Turkey’s argument is based on the so-called red line, a "psychological threshold” based on the number of refugees from Syria. When the Turkish authorities decide that Turkey cannot accept any more Syrian refugees, the army will be ordered to create a buffer zone in Syria for new refugees, which Damascus would not control.

Second, a Turkish military operation could be launched following a provocation. I fear that a group of extremists within the Syrian opposition may deliver a strike from Syria on Turkish territory, killing Turkish nationals. Turkey would respond with a larger military operation than the one it is now conducting. Turkey has a powerful army and a long border with Syria, and it is a fact that some forces in Arab countries and the West are pushing Turkey towards an open conflict.

Yes, certainly. Qatar and Saudi Arabia have identical interests in this respect. But Turkey, which is already deeply involved in the Syrian conflict, is acting contrary to its interests. This is the opinion of many politicians, business people and experts, as well as the opposition party. Besides, Russia’s stance on this issue is not only supported by China, but also by India and Brazil and, to some degree, by other countries as well. Since we are talking about Russia’s stance, it should be said that the development of Russian-Iraqi relations, including in the military and technical sphere, is evidence that Russia is not ceding its positions in the region, but is strengthening them. 

The issue of Syria is clear, but I wouldn’t fear a major confrontation between Russia and Turkey. There are no grounds for it.

Turkish diplomats are acting on the basis of the paradigm proposed by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. According to this, Turkey is the most powerful country in the region, and could become the leader of both the Middle East and the entire Islamic world. This is a more ambitious plan than pan-Turkism or neo-Osmanism. It presents Turkey as the focal point of a large system of cultural, religious, military, political and economic relations. 

Davutoglu proclaimed a Zero Problems Policy with regard to neighboring countries, which has become the fundamental foreign policy principle in Turkey. However, what Turkey has today is not zero problems with its neighbors, but rather ‘zero neighbors.’ In fact, it now has problems with nearly all of its neighbors. It also has problems with Russia, as Putin’s cancelled visit has shown, although the improvement of relations with Russia was seen, including in Moscow, as a major achievement of Turkey’s foreign policy. These relationship problems are being fostered by such absurd and unseemly incidents as the forced landing of the Syrian plane.