Published 3-01-2013, 03:52
Alexander Rahr
senior Advisor Russia for Wintershall Holding, сonsultant for the President of the German-Russian Chamber of Foreign Commerce
Valdaiclub.com interview with Alexander Rahr, senior Advisor Russia for Wintershall Holding, сonsultant for the President of the German-Russian Chamber of Foreign Commerce, member of the Valdai Discussion Club Advisory Board.
What are the three most important developments in Russia's internal policy, and why?
The first very important development in Russia's internal policy in 2012 was the emergence of a middle class in Russia – a middle class that had never been evident before. And part of this middle class went out to demonstrate during the parliamentary and also the presidential elections at the beginning of 2012. The emergence of a middle class was a very important theme for Russia's image abroad, but it also represented an understanding for the Russian elite that society is changing, and that certain steps must be taken in the future in order to incorporate the interests of this middle class into larger politics.
The second important development in Russian internal policy from my point of view was the dismissal of Serdyukov. This was the first time that one of the real heavyweights from the inner St. Petersburg circle of Vladimir Putin was purged. In my opinion, that dismissal, the removal of Serdyukov from the post of defense minster, may signify the beginning of a real anti-corruption campaign, including at the very top of the Russian state. Because so far, Putin has been criticized for cracking down on lower officials, while at the same time producing a group of untouchable siloviki who are free to do what they want. With the example of Serdyukov, the situation is changing.
And the third most important development in Russian internal policy from my perspective is of course the Pussy Riot process. I don't want to go into this, because I'm sure everybody will mention the Pussy Riot affair as one of the most important developments in Russian internal policy, not because of the court case itself, but because the Pussy Riot affair produced a very serious rift within Russia among those who perhaps value neo-Christian values, and those who nurture post-Christian values. And the Pussy Riot case also created a kind of rift between the Russian audience of Russia itself, and the West. And their view of this conflict as a possible conflict of civilizations is accurate, and it may have become a start or a highlight of this civilizational conflict, which exists today between the West and Russia.
What are the 3 most important developments in the Russian foreign policy? Why do you choose them?
In response to this question I would place as number one Putin's decision not to travel to the United States. He didn't go to the G8 meeting in Camp David paired with the NATO summit in Chicago. He's positioning Russia as a country that again has drawn a red line between Russia and the United States, which Russia thinks the West or the United States should not overstep. This shows that the conflict between the United States and Russia is quite deep. The result of the fact that Putin did not go to Chicago created a difficult stalemate in the relations of the two former superpowers, which continues to exist today and which has mounted onto other conflicts like the Magnitsky case and others.
I'm not saying that the fact that Putin did not go to the summit provoked this, by no means. I mean Putin's demonstration of his opposition to certain things that are happening in the United States was a very important diplomatic gesture, symbolizing Russia's critical stance toward America's policy toward Russia. And this, I think, was a remarkable thing to watch.
The second important development in Russian foreign policy is the conflict between Germany and Russia, the resolution of the German Bundestag, which was based on the atmosphere and the criticism that was voiced toward Russia after the Pussy Riot case, which showed that, unfortunately, even now the German elite, which was seen in Europe as the most pro-Russian, have more and more been focusing on a value-driven approach toward Russia.
They have been neglecting all these very important pragmatic economic ties and economic business relations, which also developed very well during the past year, but which are not being viewed as important by the media and by the politicians. So it's not the loss of Germany as an ally, but the rifts that have been created between the German and Russian elite, which was dominant at the St. Petersburg dialogue in Moscow and the consultations between the German and Russian governments. This is a significant change in comparison with the situation which existed before.
And the third development of importance, of course, is the completion, the accomplishment of the second string of the Nord Stream and the beginning of the building of the South Stream. This is a mega infrastructure project which binds Europe and Russia for the next decades in terms of energy supply and energy security, which should be seen as historical, as a very important foundation for the beginning of a true energy alliance between the EU and Russia.
What are the 3 most important events in the international scene that happened in 2012?
Of course, there was the reelection of Obama, which is very good for Russia and also for Europe, and, maybe, for the whole world, because Mitt Romney definitely would have conducted a different foreign policy. He would have fought for the continuation of the American decade, or the American century, in the world, meaning he would not abstain from wars, from attempts to solidify American positions by force in Asia and wherever else. But Obama is certainly more of a diplomat, and more of a politician who understands the need to secure a peaceful transition from the unipolar to a multipolar world. And with a president like that the United States understand the necessity to do this, and the world is on the right track.
The second most important event on the international scene for me is the fact that Greece did not leave the Eurozone. Many experts expected that Athens would fall, that it would be a disaster, that Greece would lose control over its financial system and become a failed state. That did not happen. The rescue operation of Greece has become not yet a success, but has not become a catastrophe, and this I think is a very important development in the events of the year 2012 on the whole.
And the third international event of major significance is the catastrophic worsening of the situation in the Middle East. One and a half years ago we were talking only about Iran, which was a disturbing factor in the whole region. We were talking about how to isolate Iran and deprive Iran of atomic weapons. Now the fact that Iran is close to getting nuclear weapons is not such an issue anymore, because other issues have become more important.
The situation in Syria is obviously out of control, and the civil war is continuing in its most awful characteristics, with no possibility for the outside world to influence the process. Also in the Middle East we have new powers of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, which are dangerously negative toward Israel, and are also neglecting the results of the Arab Spring. This means that the situation is tense and, in a global sense, an uncontrolled player like Mohammed Morsi in Egypt is now on the political stage, with a lot of power and all the potential that this country has. Thus, Cairo can change its role from a stabilizer of Middle East politics to a destabilizer of regional relations.
Of course Israel's unwillingness to find peace with Palestine is deepening the crisis in the Middle East. The situation has, in the past ten years, never been as bad as it is now. Middle East trends have become increasingly negative, so that people in the outside world have even forgotten that the focus of this and next year was supposed to be on Afghanistan, because NATO was going to leave Afghanistan in 2013, and by 2014 it must leave Afghanistan, but even this remarkable event is in the shadow today of all the other processes, which are much more important and dangerous, that are evolving in the near Middle East.
Who were the three persons who influenced the global agenda on Russia in 2012?
In Russia it's definitely Putin, because Russia's policy is largely still a one-man show, and everything has been said about this. But there is another "personality”, of course, and I would put this "personality” in quotation marks, as one who has also written history in 2012, and that is Nadezhda Tolokonnikova. She has made it onto the cover of Der Spiegel and many other newspapers, and has become a symbol for something like an opposition against Putin. So in a negative sense, Nadezhda Tolokonnikova has become the second face of Russia throughout the year 2012, which is a fact the country ignored.
And the third person I would name is the Russian Olympic equipe, which performed very well at the London Olympic Games in August of this year. So collectively I would name the sports men and women of Russia who really delivered a very good result, even better than expected, in London, and this should also be acknowledged.
What are the three current trends that will have the biggest impact on Russia in 2013?
Very shortly, first, Russia has to define its stance on modernization of its national economy. It has to choose now, and time is running out, the right strategy for how to reform and modernize not only its economy, and also its social life. For example, will Russia focus now on the creation of a strong middle class, as Putin said in his address to parliament, or will the lobbies prevail who think that Russia is good enough to live on oil and gas exports, and does not need modernization?
The second major impact on Russia would hopefully be a quick meeting between Obama and Putin, which has to take place as soon as possible in my mind, because such a meeting can immediately resolve many of the new conflicts, like that which we see today in the Duma, where United Russia wants to prohibit, together with the Zhirinovsky party, the adoption of Russian children by the United States. But there are many other laws that have been adopted by the Duma, in response to some wrong steps which the United States were taking toward Russia. The two leaders must meet in order to stop that, to stop this cause that is driving both countries into confrontation. And I presume a meeting of these two presidents could have success.
And the third trend is, of course, the situation around the Middle East. What will happen in Syria, Iran, Egypt, Israel, is of tremendous importance for the creation of a multipolar world on our planet, and also for the role of Russia as a power which can influence or not influence the global agenda.
.jpg/250px-ElbeDay1945_(NARA_ww2-121).jpg)
