Is there a way out of the crisis?

«We wish not to meddle with the internal affairs of any country»

President Thomas Jefferson

During the election campaign and few weeks after Donald Trump made some statements on the subject of American-Russian relations that pushed many people to believe in the upcoming improvement.

However, in the long term, chances for positive development of two side relations are slim, and they even reduce due to the alarming circumstances of 45th us president anniversary, which made the picture even gloomier.

The US Senate decision tightening the sanctions against Russia may worsen not only US relations with Russia but also with the EU. Besides the financial restrictions for American companies, further sanctions in energy sector may violate the principle of extraterritoriality. Kristan Kern, the chancellor of Austria, and Sigmar Gabriel, German minister of foreign affairs, both noted that, and they were concerned with the opportunity of intervention in the domestic affairs even by the allies.

The analysis of the positions of leading experts in U.S.-Russia relations (Edward Lozansky, James Jetras, Nikolai Zlobin, Daniel McAdams) shows that they agree upon the core issue concerning the situation in the US. In particular, they state that Donald Trump in no way should follow the Congress decisions to avoid worsening of the crises and other negative consequences in domestic and foreign relations.

Taking into account Donald Trump’s solid business experience it’s difficult to doubt in his resolution to put into practice his election pledges. Still business is not politics. In business, at least, one can be individualist and get impressive results if he has charisma, extraordinary administrative, creative skills, etc. There are plenty of examples in the modern world, e.g. Steve Jobs, Ilon Mask, Sergei Galitsky, Mark Zuckerberg, Donald Trump (as a businessman) and many others. Nevertheless, such wonderful qualities as mentioned above and the support of the majority of voters is hardly enough for the high-level politician like Donald Trump. It is also necessary to have the number of reliable allies both in the US and abroad. And that is what the US president is lacking at the moment. His desires and aspirations to improve the relations with Russia are fading into political oblivion, facing strongly negative reaction of the establishment and leading mass media that are ruled by the invisible hand of political market, operating with the ease of experienced puppeteer. Will Donald Trump be strong enough to withstand such a sophisticated enemy?

The upcoming G-20 summit in Hamburg, scheduled for July 7-8, should answer this question, as far as within its frameworks Donald Trump personal meeting with open-to-dialog Vladimir Putin is arranged. This meeting will clarify whether the US president will or will not manage to combine the qualities of individualistic pragmatist, creative person, charismatic leader and flexible and longsighted politician. Will he be able to fight his corner, which was the keystone of his election campaign by mixing up the best qualities of businessman and politician? Will he manage to gain such a reliable ally as the Russian president? Will the opposition within the USA join him, and will the escape from the crisis be found? Or the other forces will overtake in this competition?

Anyway, it is not long to wait. And we had better hope for the best, that common sense will prevail.

The best summary for this discourse would be the words of Thomas Jefferson the third US president, which were told in the end of XVIII century but still relevant to this day. "I never submitted the whole system of my opinions to the creed of any party of men whatever in religion, in philosophy, in politics, or in anything else where I was capable of thinking for myself. Such an addiction is the last degradation of a free and moral agent. If I could not go to heaven but with a party, I would not go there at all.”

Artem Zharov - postgraduate of the Faculty of Political Science of the Lomonosov Moscow State University